The Atlanta Fed's macroblog provides commentary and analysis on economic topics including monetary policy, macroeconomic developments, inflation, labor economics, and financial issues.

Authors for macroblog are Dave Altig, John Robertson, and other Atlanta Fed economists and researchers.

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January 23, 2006

Fed Funds Expectations On Hold

There was plenty of commentary last week from the members of the Federal Open Market Committee, duly covered at Economists View (herehere, and here), at The Housing Bubble 2, by The Capital Spectator, and at Angry Bear, among others that I'm sure are out there.  No matter.  All that talking didn't much budge the latest batch of estimates of market bets being placed on the next few federal funds rate decisions.  Here's the story, short and sweet:




Here's the data, suitable for framing:
Download Imp_pdf_slides_for_blog_012006.ppt
Download implied_pdf_january_012006.xls
Download implied_pdf_march_012006.xls

UPDATE: John Berry endorses the market view.

January 23, 2006 in Fed Funds Futures , Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy | Permalink


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So it would be a real big surprise if rates do not go to 4.5%.

Have there ever been similar surprises before? When? What happened?

Posted by: nate | January 24, 2006 at 07:27 PM

nate -- I'm going on memory only here, but my recollection is that there was a pretty good splash in June 2003 when the market was expecting a 50 basis point cut and got a 25 basis point cut (which was the one that took us to 1 percent where we stayed for a considerable period of time).

Posted by: Dave Altig | January 27, 2006 at 01:43 PM

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