The Atlanta Fed's macroblog provides commentary and analysis on economic topics including monetary policy, macroeconomic developments, inflation, labor economics, and financial issues.

Authors for macroblog are Dave Altig, John Robertson, and other Atlanta Fed economists and researchers.

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November 21, 2005

Funds Rates To Come: No News This Week

This week's report on the funds rate probabilities (estimated from options on federal funds futures) is strictly for the record.  Twenty-five basis points in both December and January have been the runaway favorites for awhile now, and everyone is apparently sticking to that story.  My man Erkin Sahinoz,  APE -- Analyst Par Excellence -- is on the case, daily checking out the March and April contracts so we can get a look a little further down the road.  Not enough strikes yet to do the estimation, though.  We'll keep you posted.  For now, here's the same old same old:



Here's the data, if you must:

Download implied_pdf_december_111805.xls
Download implied_pdf_january_111805.xls
Download Imp_pdf_slides_for_blog_111805.ppt

UPDATE: On the international front, Edward Hugh observes the back and forth between Eurozone finance ministers and European Central Bank president Jean-Claude Trichet.  For now, the word is that the "ECB has 'no plans' for series of rate hikes".  In the UK, David K. Smith writes that "Interest rates in Britain are not going to rise any time soon and probably have further to fall."

November 21, 2005 in Fed Funds Futures | Permalink


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