The Atlanta Fed's macroblog provides commentary and analysis on economic topics including monetary policy, macroeconomic developments, inflation, labor economics, and financial issues.

Authors for macroblog are Dave Altig, John Robertson, and other Atlanta Fed economists and researchers.

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July 07, 2005

More Evidence Of The Soft Patch's Demise

Maybe premature, but the Institute for Supply Management's report on service sector business activity in June follows up on last news positive report for the manufacturing sector. From Bloomberg:

A gauge of growth at U.S. services companies, the largest part of the economy, rose more than forecast in June, while hiring accelerated.

The Institute for Supply Management said today its index for non-manufacturing companies, including financial services and retailers, increased to 62.2 last month from 58.5 in May. Services account for about two-thirds of gross domestic product. Figures greater than 50 show expansion.

The non-manufacturing gauge is close to the 62.4 average for all of last year, when economic growth of 4.4 percent was the fastest since 1999. The group's hiring gauge increased to a four-month high...

Some economists say the ISM employment gauges may be a harbinger for the government's monthly employment report, which is scheduled to be released on July 8, economists said. The group's index of manufacturing employment rose to 49.9 for June, from 48.8.

Tomorrow we know for sure.

July 7, 2005 in Data Releases | Permalink


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The final line you quote from Bloomberg is really whacky. That 49.9 is the second lowest reading in a long time, following right behind the lowest in that long time. All the author does is note that in jobs index rose, without providing context. In retrospect, it looks pretty silly (factories shed 24k jobs in June), but only because I didn't see it till after the fact. It would have looked silly, even without knowing about the factory job loss.

Posted by: kharris | July 08, 2005 at 10:55 AM

Well, I guess it was indeed a harbinger -- the manufacturing employment report was not good at all.

Posted by: Dave Altig | July 12, 2005 at 10:13 AM

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