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March 30, 2005
Soft Landing, Or Hard: How Do We Know Who Wins?
Something has been bugging me about this hard-landing/soft-landing discussion: What, exactly, are we talking about? In particular, what would constitute a "hard landing"? An outright recession? A really severe one -- like 73-75 or 81-82? Or even a relatively mild and short-lived downturn, like 90-91 or 01?
Or would you call it a hard landing if the U.S. economy were to grow, but substantially below trend? If so, for how long? Or, perhaps, you would call it a hard landing if the adjustment process results in substantial capital losses, even if the effect on overall economic activity is muted (as in the stock market "crash" of 87)? How persistent do those losses have to be to constitute a hard landing?
I herewith solicit your opinions on this. If you are a blogger and choose to post your answer on your site, I will dutifully link to it.
March 30, 2005 | Permalink
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