The Atlanta Fed's macroblog provides commentary and analysis on economic topics including monetary policy, macroeconomic developments, inflation, labor economics, and financial issues.
- BLS Handbook of Methods
- Bureau of Economic Analysis
- Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Congressional Budget Office
- Economic Data - FRED® II, St. Louis Fed
- Office of Management and Budget
- Statistics: Releases and Historical Data, Board of Governors
- U.S. Census Bureau Economic Programs
- White House Economic Statistics Briefing Room
March 16, 2007
The Inflation Report: Just Not Getting Better
According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% (3.6% annualized rate) in February. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% (3.6% annualized rate) during the month. The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) monthly CPI report.
Earlier today, the BLS reported that the seasonally adjusted CPI for all urban consumers rose 0.4% (4.5% annualized rate) in February. The CPI less food and energy rose 0.2% (2.9% annualized rate) on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Over the last 12 months, the median CPI rose 3.6%, the 16% trimmed-mean CPI rose 2.8%, the CPI 2.4%, and the CPI less food and energy 2.7%.
Here's the table:
The somewhat startling nature of inflation measured by the median CPI is a result of the continuing strangeness in the distribution of the expenditure-weighted components of the index:
That's a whopping 67.6 percent of prices (weighted by their importance in the CPI market basket) that rose at a better than three percent annual rate in February. That just can't be good.
UPDATE: The Capital Spectator says "As warning bells go, this one looks pretty convincing." The Skeptical Speculator believes "the Fed will be hesitant about cutting rates." Dean Baker thinks we should be keeping our eye on the Producer Price Index. I think Barry Ritholtz concurs, and says there is "good cause" for concern. Michael Shedlock ponders the PPI, and offers you the raw material for your stagflation office pool. The Nattering Naybob suggests the data already reveal "raging stagflation." Calculated Risk puts the inflation report together with retail sales and looks ahead to real consumption growth for the first quarter.
TrackBack URL for this entry:
Listed below are links to blogs that reference The Inflation Report: Just Not Getting Better :
- The Fed’s Inflation Goal: What Does the Public Know?
- Going to School on Labor Force Participation
- Bad Debt Is Bad for Your Health
- Working for Yourself, Some of the Time
- Gauging Firm Optimism in a Time of Transition
- Can Tight Labor Markets Inhibit Investment Growth?
- More Ways to Watch Wages
- Unemployment versus Underemployment: Assessing Labor Market Slack
- Does a High-Pressure Labor Market Bring Long-Term Benefits?
- Net Exports Continue to Bedevil GDPNow
- April 2017
- March 2017
- February 2017
- January 2017
- December 2016
- November 2016
- October 2016
- September 2016
- August 2016
- July 2016
- Business Cycles
- Business Inflation Expectations
- Capital and Investment
- Capital Markets
- Data Releases
- Economic conditions
- Economic Growth and Development
- Exchange Rates and the Dollar
- Fed Funds Futures
- Federal Debt and Deficits
- Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy
- Financial System
- Fiscal Policy
- Health Care
- Inflation Expectations
- Interest Rates
- Labor Markets
- Latin America/South America
- Monetary Policy
- Money Markets
- Real Estate
- Saving, Capital, and Investment
- Small Business
- Social Security
- This, That, and the Other
- Trade Deficit
- Wage Growth