Foreclosures And Delinquencies: Its All In The ARMs

Here's the news we've been expecting, from CNNMoney:

A record high number of homeowners faced a serious threat of foreclosure during the fourth quarter of 2006, according to a survey released Tuesday by the Mortgage Bankers Association...

Troubled mortgage holders rose across the board: The delinquency rate for one-to-four-family houses rose to 4.95 percent of all loans outstanding compared with 4.67 during the third quarter and 4.70 percent 12 months earlier.

All major loan types contributed to the increase, but subprimes and FHA loans were up the most.

OK, have a look for yourself:

   

   

The real (bad) action, of course, is in adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs):

   

   

Meanwhile, delinquencies are still growing, though here too the problem is the ARMs:

   

 

   

Calculated Risk has a map with the regional breakdown of delinquency rates, showing the concentration of past due loans in the South and Midwest. Here's more of that story, in pictures:

   

 

   

Once again, the issue is the ARMs:

   

   

And foreclosures?

   

   

There, unfortunately, you have it.

UPDATE:  Much,much more --

Jim Hamilton covers the New Century story. Calculated Risk surveys some "overlooked subprime stories."  Daniel Gross is on Contagion Watch. (Here, as well.) Nouriel Roubini reports on a report that emphasizes the non-subprime aspects of the problem.  Truck and Barter links to yet more related stories, as does Ben Jones.

Chris Dillow thinks the problem is reall in the labor markets (though Arnold Kling has his doubts about that).

Barry Ritholtz has an explanation of how Collateralized Debt Obigations (CDOs) work.

Claus Vistesen sees "the risk of severe slowdown/recession in the US mounting. Nouriel Roubini says the "credit crunch genie is out of the bottle" --just as Kash feared.  Michael Mandel believes that tightening credit standards mean that "an interest rate cut would be in order as well."  But James Pethokoukis suggests it may be no more than "March Madness."