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December 22, 2006
'Tis The Season
The global saving glut in song (with a big giant tip of Santa's stocking cap to Axiom Management's Stan Jonas).
And in case I forget, blessings to each and every one of you.
UPDATE: Well, I see Greg Mankiw beat me to the punch. So, in case you are in the mood for something a little less lighthearted, here's a rundown of various musings about global interest rates and such, from the bloggy wonderland:
Barry Riholtz points to Paul Kasriel's musings on many things, including the ongoing role of global demand in "explaining" the low long-term interest rates in the US. (See page 5 of the December 15 article "Festivus Flow-of-Funds Stocking Stuffers." I'm still not too sure I buy into implicit "market segmentation" theory of the term structure, but the whole thing is interesting reading in any event.)
Jim Hamilton discusses a paper by the San Francisco Fed's Glenn Rudebusch, Eric Swanson, and Tao Wu, on the disappearing term premium in long-term bonds (and offers the hopeful possibility that "perhaps there is another little chunk of that inverted yield curve that's maybe not so scary"). At Angry Bear, pgl has some thoughts on the topic too. Jon Rotger is apparently unmoved by claims that yield curve inversions ain't what they used to be. Neither is Nouriel Roubini.
Looking to the great world beyond, Brad Setser has lots of interesting things to say (as usual) about the role of Asian central banks in the year behind and the year ahead. At Bonobo Land, Edward Hugh has the premium on emerging market interest rates (and much more) on his mind. While you're on that topic, check out Felix Salmon at Economonitor as well. At Alpha.Sources-CV, Claus Vistesen considers Japan's widening trade surplus, and suggests the country's current dependence of export production willimit the Bank of Japan's options on policy rates. At Eurozone Watch, Sebastian Dullien is bullish on Germany and colleagues, unless "the hawks in the ECB get their way and rise their interest rates overly quickly." The Skeptical Speculator adds the UK to the higher-rates-in-07 clan.
Calculated Risk takes a calculated risk and predicts "the Fed to start lowering rates later next year", but conjectures "long rates will start to rise."
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