The Atlanta Fed's macroblog provides commentary and analysis on economic topics including monetary policy, macroeconomic developments, inflation, labor economics, and financial issues.
- BLS Handbook of Methods
- Bureau of Economic Analysis
- Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Congressional Budget Office
- Economic Data - FRED® II, St. Louis Fed
- Office of Management and Budget
- Statistics: Releases and Historical Data, Board of Governors
- U.S. Census Bureau Economic Programs
- White House Economic Statistics Briefing Room
December 08, 2006
Another Good Employment Report -- And Why Some Will Argue It Might Not Mean Much
First the basics, from BusinessWeek.com:
U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose 132,000 in November, beating the forecast for a 110,000 gain. October's payrolls were revised down to 79,000 from 92,000, but September's 148,000 level was revised up to 203,000, for an overall net upward revision of 42,000.
The details have a familiar ring, with construction and manufacturing employment continuing to take it on the chin, and broad-based gains elsewhere -- even in retail:
So what's not to like? Only the hunch that it might not last. From the Wall Street Journal (subscription required):
The labor market remained quite tight in November. However, labor market tightness is at best a coincident indicator and more generally a lagging indicator of economic strength, so changes in joblessness will not drive Fed policy.... -- Steven A. Wood, Insight Economics
Indeed, today's report on consumer confidence from the University of Michigan suggested that, though folks may be thinking things are OK at the moment, the perception out there is that the future might not be so bright. From Reuters:
U.S. consumer sentiment ebbed in December as consumers pared back their view of their future financial conditions, raising concerns on the outlook for spending...
The survey's index of current conditions rose to 108.2 in December from 106.0 in November, while consumer expectations dipped to 78.6 from 83.2 in November.
There has been a lot of talk lately about the similarities between 2000 and today, the idea being that this year's housing bust is eerily reminiscent of yesteryear's stock market crumble. Those comparisons are fair enough, but it is useful to remember that by end of year 2000 weakness in the labor market was already manifest:
I'd say we're still ahead of the game.
TrackBack URL for this entry:
Listed below are links to blogs that reference Another Good Employment Report -- And Why Some Will Argue It Might Not Mean Much:
- Payroll Employment Growth: Strong Enough?
- Forecasting Loan Losses for Stress Tests
- Men at Work: Are We Seeing a Turnaround in Male Labor Force Participation?
- What’s Moving the Market’s Views on the Path of Short-Term Rates?
- Lockhart Casts a Line into the Murky Waters of Uncertainty
- How Will Employers Respond to New Overtime Regulations?
- How Good Is The Employment Trend? Decide for Yourself
- Is the Labor Market Tossing a Fair Coin?
- When It Rains, It Pours
- Pay As You Go: Yes or No?
- August 2016
- July 2016
- June 2016
- May 2016
- April 2016
- March 2016
- February 2016
- January 2016
- November 2015
- October 2015
- Business Cycles
- Business Inflation Expectations
- Capital and Investment
- Capital Markets
- Data Releases
- Economic conditions
- Economic Growth and Development
- Exchange Rates and the Dollar
- Fed Funds Futures
- Federal Debt and Deficits
- Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy
- Financial System
- Fiscal Policy
- Health Care
- Inflation Expectations
- Interest Rates
- Labor Markets
- Latin America/South America
- Monetary Policy
- Money Markets
- Real Estate
- Saving, Capital, and Investment
- Small Business
- Social Security
- This, That, and the Other
- Trade Deficit
- Wage Growth