The Atlanta Fed's macroblog provides commentary on economic topics including monetary policy, macroeconomic developments, financial issues and Southeast regional trends.
- BLS Handbook of Methods
- Bureau of Economic Analysis
- Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Congressional Budget Office
- Economic Data - FRED® II, St. Louis Fed
- Office of Management and Budget
- Statistics: Releases and Historical Data, Board of Governors
- U.S. Census Bureau Economic Programs
- White House Economic Statistics Briefing Room
September 13, 2006
A Warning Sign In The Deficit Report?
I guess how you feel about today's news on the August federal deficit report depends on your perspective. Reuters led with the observation that the ink was a little redder than expected...
The U.S. government posted a larger-than-expected $64.61 billion federal budget deficit in August as outlays for the month were at a record high, a Treasury Department report showed on Wednesday.
The August deficit compared with a $51.33 billion deficit in August 2005.
Wall Street economists polled by Reuters were expecting a $61.15 billion deficit for the month.
... while AFX News Limited (via Forbes) kicked off with a cheerier perspective:
The federal deficit through August held below last year's level and continued on its course for a smaller yearly deficit this year than last, the Treasury Department said.
The government posted a budget deficit of 64.6 bln usd in August, compared to expectations of a 67 bln usd monthly deficit.
Through the first 11 months of the budget year, the deficit was 304.3 bln usd, down 14 pct from the same period in 2005, when it totaled 354.1 bln usd.
I don't doubt that someone out there in blogland will point out that, in the even longer run, the federal budget remains in a state of some disrepair. But, for the moment, I am decidedly focused on the short run, and trying to figure out exactly how the economic outlook is evolving. From that perspective, this detail from Action Economics (subscription required) is not encouraging:
Receipts were weak, declining 1.0% or $1.6 bln to $153.9 bln. Weakness was led by a drop in individual income. This marks the first time since April of 2004 that receipt growth has been negative.
OK, I'll remind myself that one month does not a trend make, and maybe encourage myself with this report, from Greg Ip and Christopher Conkey at The Wall Street Journal Online:
The recent drop in oil prices could provide a welcome and surprising boost to consumer pocketbooks this fall, cushioning the economy from a falloff in home prices and construction while venting an important source of inflation pressure.
The easing of energy prices is an unexpected -- and little-noted -- positive amid economic anxiety over falling housing activity, previous energy-price increases and the possibility of recession.
Crude oil was at $77 a barrel as recently as early August. Yesterday, the price of the October crude-oil future contract settled at $63.76, a near six month low, down $1.85 from Monday, on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Ahh. I feel better already.
TrackBack URL for this entry:
Listed below are links to blogs that reference A Warning Sign In The Deficit Report?:
- Far Away Yet Close to Home: Discussing the Global Economy's Effects
- New Atlanta Fed Series Shows Wage Growth Held Steady in May
- Approaching the Promised Land? Yes and No
- Will the Elevated Share of Part-Time Workers Last?
- Falling Job Tenure: It's Not Just about Millennials
- Atlanta Fed's Wage Growth Measure Increased Again in April
- myCPI: Getting More Personal with Inflation
- Sales Flexing Muscle at More Firms
- All Eyes on the Consumer
- Signs of Strengthening Wage Growth?
- July 2015
- June 2015
- May 2015
- April 2015
- March 2015
- February 2015
- January 2015
- December 2014
- November 2014
- October 2014
- Business Cycles
- Business Inflation Expectations
- Capital and Investment
- Capital Markets
- Data Releases
- Economic conditions
- Economic Growth and Development
- Exchange Rates and the Dollar
- Fed Funds Futures
- Federal Debt and Deficits
- Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy
- Financial System
- Fiscal Policy
- Health Care
- Inflation Expectations
- Interest Rates
- Labor Markets
- Latin America/South America
- Monetary Policy
- Money Markets
- Real Estate
- Saving, Capital, and Investment
- Small Business
- Social Security
- This, That, and the Other
- Trade Deficit
- Wage Growth