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The Atlanta Fed's macroblog provides commentary and analysis on economic topics including monetary policy, macroeconomic developments, inflation, labor economics, and financial issues.

Authors for macroblog are Dave Altig, John Robertson, and other Atlanta Fed economists and researchers.


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July 25, 2006


A Hat Tip, Nothing More

I really can't add much to Jim Hamilton's wonderfully clear exposition of the yield curve, the expectations hypothesis of the term structure, and what it all might mean in the current economic environment beyond advising you to go read it.  Extra cool points are awarded for the link to the "recession predictor" at Political Calculations, an interactive program based on research by the Federal Reserve Board's Jonathon Wright that allows you to plug in relevant information about the Treasury yield curve and receive, free-of-charge, an estimate of the probability of recession arriving within in a year.  It's been around for awhile, so I somehow missed it the first time around.  To atone, you will henceforth find the path to the recession predictor in the "Useful Links" list of this weblog.

July 25, 2006 in Interest Rates | Permalink

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