The Atlanta Fed's macroblog provides commentary and analysis on economic topics including monetary policy, macroeconomic developments, inflation, labor economics, and financial issues.
- BLS Handbook of Methods
- Bureau of Economic Analysis
- Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Congressional Budget Office
- Economic Data - FRED® II, St. Louis Fed
- Office of Management and Budget
- Statistics: Releases and Historical Data, Board of Governors
- U.S. Census Bureau Economic Programs
- White House Economic Statistics Briefing Room
June 14, 2006
The May Inflation Report: Insert Something Negative Here
Egad. The bad news, from the Cleveland Fed:
According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% (4.3% annualized rate) in May. The median CPI is a measure of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report.
Earlier today, the BLS reported that the seasonally adjusted CPI for all urban consumers rose 0.4% (5.5% annualized rate) in May. The CPI less food and energy rose 0.3% (3.6% annualized rate) on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Over the last 12 months, the median CPI rose 3.0%, the CPI 4.2%, and the CPI less food and energy 2.4%.
The owner's equivalent rent component of the CPI -- discussed here a few days ago -- continues to rear its ugly not-so-little head:
That's an impressive contribution, but it is not the case that the inflation statistic is being distorted by this one component of the CPI. Here's the distribution of non-energy price changes, weighted by expenditure shares:
In case you are too depressed to do the arithmetic, that picture means about two-thirds of the components in the CPI increased at a rate well above what most of us have come to know as the "comfort zone." That's only one month's data, of course, but as a reminder here was the (total) distribution from the April report...
... and here was the detail from the March report:
If you have a positive spin on any of this, feel free to share with the class.
Many thanks to super inflation-analyst Linsey Molloy for sharing her pictures with me. I'm pleased to share them with you too:
UPDATE: Barry Ritholtz says relax, the June FOMC meeting was in the bag anyway and August is in a far away land. William Polley agrees, but I think believes that August is less of a question mark than does Barry. Andrew Samwick, obseessing less than many of us about what the Fed will do next, nonetheless despairs the real average weekly earnings of nonsupervisory production workers have declined. The Skeptical Speculator puts the inflation report in the context of other economic news of the day, here and around the world.
TrackBack URL for this entry:
Listed below are links to blogs that reference The May Inflation Report: Insert Something Negative Here:
- Payroll Employment Growth: Strong Enough?
- Forecasting Loan Losses for Stress Tests
- Men at Work: Are We Seeing a Turnaround in Male Labor Force Participation?
- What’s Moving the Market’s Views on the Path of Short-Term Rates?
- Lockhart Casts a Line into the Murky Waters of Uncertainty
- How Will Employers Respond to New Overtime Regulations?
- How Good Is The Employment Trend? Decide for Yourself
- Is the Labor Market Tossing a Fair Coin?
- When It Rains, It Pours
- Pay As You Go: Yes or No?
- August 2016
- July 2016
- June 2016
- May 2016
- April 2016
- March 2016
- February 2016
- January 2016
- November 2015
- October 2015
- Business Cycles
- Business Inflation Expectations
- Capital and Investment
- Capital Markets
- Data Releases
- Economic conditions
- Economic Growth and Development
- Exchange Rates and the Dollar
- Fed Funds Futures
- Federal Debt and Deficits
- Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy
- Financial System
- Fiscal Policy
- Health Care
- Inflation Expectations
- Interest Rates
- Labor Markets
- Latin America/South America
- Monetary Policy
- Money Markets
- Real Estate
- Saving, Capital, and Investment
- Small Business
- Social Security
- This, That, and the Other
- Trade Deficit
- Wage Growth