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June 30, 2006
Post-FOMC Market Update
The pudding, from the Financial Times..
“Traders probably sense from the statement that the Fed is proceeding cautiously, even reluctantly, in terms of future tightening,” said Alan Ruskin, strategist at RBS Greenwich Capital. “It seems like it may have caught the market off guard.”
Futures traders priced in a reduced probability of an August rate rise – still about 65 per cent cent, but down from about 90 per cent the day before.
... along with some more proof in pictures:
That change is not quite as dramatic as the numbers quoted from the Financial Times -- a result of using options rather than futures alone in the calculations of the probabilities -- but the story remains more or less the same. The details and data will be available later this morning on the Cleveland Fed website, where you will also find the first hint of what the market thinks September will bring:
UPDATE: Meanwhile, in the global blogger village: The Capital Spectator observes that the decision was "a surprise to no one", but the statement was "anything but routine." (CS also digs up an analyst willing to muse "If we get a bad consumer price index report, for instance, the Fed might do something the next day".) The Nattering Naybob reads the statement as "status quo" (and puts the decision in the broader context of the day's news, as does The Skeptical Speculator.) But The Prudent Investor is not buying the dove interpretation. William Polley thinks "another one or two quarter point steps are probably in the cards." Hypothetical Bias reminds us that "the Fed has a history of overdoing tightening regimes" and suggests that to "demonstrate his inflation-fighting credentials, Bernanke may continue this pattern." A full parsing of the Committe' statement is available at Economist's View and at The Mess That Greenspan Made.
The New Economist has some links that I missed.
Sort of related: Contango has an interesting panel of Morgan Stanley economists discussing whether monetary policy has defnitely turned restrictive. (Answer: Yes.) Greg Mankiw relays (with some skepticism) an attempt to resurrect the reputation of Arthur Burns.
UPDATE II: Michael Shedlock has many thoughts, all of which lead to the conclusion that "the recession of 2007 is looming ever larger."
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