The Atlanta Fed's macroblog provides commentary and analysis on economic topics including monetary policy, macroeconomic developments, inflation, labor economics, and financial issues.
- BLS Handbook of Methods
- Bureau of Economic Analysis
- Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Congressional Budget Office
- Economic Data - FRED® II, St. Louis Fed
- Office of Management and Budget
- Statistics: Releases and Historical Data, Board of Governors
- U.S. Census Bureau Economic Programs
- White House Economic Statistics Briefing Room
June 30, 2006
Post-FOMC Market Update
The pudding, from the Financial Times..
“Traders probably sense from the statement that the Fed is proceeding cautiously, even reluctantly, in terms of future tightening,” said Alan Ruskin, strategist at RBS Greenwich Capital. “It seems like it may have caught the market off guard.”
Futures traders priced in a reduced probability of an August rate rise – still about 65 per cent cent, but down from about 90 per cent the day before.
... along with some more proof in pictures:
That change is not quite as dramatic as the numbers quoted from the Financial Times -- a result of using options rather than futures alone in the calculations of the probabilities -- but the story remains more or less the same. The details and data will be available later this morning on the Cleveland Fed website, where you will also find the first hint of what the market thinks September will bring:
UPDATE: Meanwhile, in the global blogger village: The Capital Spectator observes that the decision was "a surprise to no one", but the statement was "anything but routine." (CS also digs up an analyst willing to muse "If we get a bad consumer price index report, for instance, the Fed might do something the next day".) The Nattering Naybob reads the statement as "status quo" (and puts the decision in the broader context of the day's news, as does The Skeptical Speculator.) But The Prudent Investor is not buying the dove interpretation. William Polley thinks "another one or two quarter point steps are probably in the cards." Hypothetical Bias reminds us that "the Fed has a history of overdoing tightening regimes" and suggests that to "demonstrate his inflation-fighting credentials, Bernanke may continue this pattern." A full parsing of the Committe' statement is available at Economist's View and at The Mess That Greenspan Made.
The New Economist has some links that I missed.
Sort of related: Contango has an interesting panel of Morgan Stanley economists discussing whether monetary policy has defnitely turned restrictive. (Answer: Yes.) Greg Mankiw relays (with some skepticism) an attempt to resurrect the reputation of Arthur Burns.
UPDATE II: Michael Shedlock has many thoughts, all of which lead to the conclusion that "the recession of 2007 is looming ever larger."
TrackBack URL for this entry:
Listed below are links to blogs that reference Post-FOMC Market Update :
- Labor Supply Constraints and Health Problems in Rural America
- Building a Better Model: Introducing Changes to GDPNow
- How Ill a Wind? Hurricanes' Impacts on Employment and Earnings
- When Health Insurance and Its Financial Cushion Disappear
- What Is the "Right" Policy Rate?
- Is Poor Health Hindering Economic Growth?
- Behind the Increase in Prime-Age Labor Force Participation
- An Update on Labor Force Participation
- Another Look at the Wage Growth Tracker's Cyclicality
- GDPNow's Second Quarter Forecast: Is It Too High?
- November 2017
- October 2017
- September 2017
- August 2017
- July 2017
- May 2017
- April 2017
- March 2017
- February 2017
- January 2017
- Business Cycles
- Business Inflation Expectations
- Capital and Investment
- Capital Markets
- Data Releases
- Economic conditions
- Economic Growth and Development
- Exchange Rates and the Dollar
- Fed Funds Futures
- Federal Debt and Deficits
- Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy
- Financial System
- Fiscal Policy
- Health Care
- Inflation Expectations
- Interest Rates
- Labor Markets
- Latin America/South America
- Monetary Policy
- Money Markets
- Real Estate
- Saving, Capital, and Investment
- Small Business
- Social Security
- This, That, and the Other
- Trade Deficit
- Wage Growth