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June 15, 2006

No More Questions About The June FOMC Meeting

The aftermath of the inflation report on market expectations about what the FOMC will do next:

 

June_21

 

For the first time in our estimates, the probability that the funds rate target will be pushed to 5.5% by the time the August FOMC meeting is done exceeds the implied probability of a pause sometime this summer (if only by a little):

 

August_8 

The details and the data will be available later this morning at the Federal Reserve Bank of Clevelandf website.

UPDATE: Calculated Risk agrees: "The June Fed Debate Appears Over".

June 15, 2006 in Fed Funds Futures, Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy, Inflation | Permalink

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Comments

I agree that the FED will raise rates at the next meeting in June, I jsut did a big analysis of the FED next moves on my blog.

It will be interesting to see what happens after that June 29.

There is a list of prominent names that have high forecasts for the next moves: Barclays with 6 % by year end, Lehman Brothers with a forecast of 5.75 per cent, JPMorgan and Credit Suisse, with a 6 per cent peak but both expect that rate some time next year.

Posted by: fxkingg | June 24, 2006 at 10:56 AM

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