The Atlanta Fed's macroblog provides commentary on economic topics including monetary policy, macroeconomic developments, financial issues and Southeast regional trends.
- BLS Handbook of Methods
- Bureau of Economic Analysis
- Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Congressional Budget Office
- Economic Data - FRED® II, St. Louis Fed
- Office of Management and Budget
- Statistics: Releases and Historical Data, Board of Governors
- U.S. Census Bureau Economic Programs
- White House Economic Statistics Briefing Room
June 15, 2006
Feeling The Love
I normally would not expect news that starts like this, from Bloomberg, to be greeted with much enthusiasm:
Bernanke Says Oil May Slow Growth, Spur Inflation (Update2)
June 15 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said soaring energy costs may slow economic growth and spur inflation in the short term...
Oh, but it was. From Reuters (via USAToday):
Stocks jumped sharply Thursday as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said inflation developments "bear watching" but the impact of high energy costs on other prices has been limited and the economy will adjust over time.
What's the deal?
"The reason it's up isn't so much that (Bernanke) said anything, it's what he didn't say," said Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist with Wells Capital Management. "Leading up to this people thought he might be more hawkish," given recent data showing an uptick in inflation.
And from the Wall Street Journal, today's bad news is good news entry:
Manufacturing data released by the Fed Thursday might have eased some concerns about inflationary pressure. The Fed said its measure of industrial production fell for the first time in five months, reflecting sharp declines in auto and machinery output and a dip in mining activity. It lost 0.1% in May, versus economists' expectations for a gain of 0.2%. Capacity utilization, a closely watched measure of inflationary pressure, was 81.7%, down from 81.9% in April and also less then expected.
Actually, it would be a mistake to make too much out of the industrial production report, as the monthly series is quite volatile:
This month's dip follows two months of fairly good gains, and the 12-month growth rate still looks pretty healthy:
There. Feeling worse now? OK, if it's any consolation, a downward trend has to start somewhere, so maybe this is, in fact, the start of something small. Feel free to rally.
UPDATE: Those who put their money where their expectations are in the market for options on federal funds futures were not moved to alter their assessments of the situation:
TrackBack URL for this entry:
Listed below are links to blogs that reference Feeling The Love:
- The ZPOP Ratio: A Simple Take on a Complicated Labor Market
- What Do U.S. Businesses Know that New Zealand Businesses Don't? A Lot (Apparently).
- 5-Year Deflation Probability Moves Off Zero
- Should I Stay or Should I Go Now?
- No Wage Change?
- Getting to the Core of Goods and Services Prices
- Different Strokes for Different Folks
- Have Changing Job and Worker Characteristics Restrained Wage Growth?
- Far Away Yet Close to Home: Discussing the Global Economy's Effects
- New Atlanta Fed Series Shows Wage Growth Held Steady in May
- September 2015
- August 2015
- July 2015
- June 2015
- May 2015
- April 2015
- March 2015
- February 2015
- January 2015
- December 2014
- Business Cycles
- Business Inflation Expectations
- Capital and Investment
- Capital Markets
- Data Releases
- Economic conditions
- Economic Growth and Development
- Exchange Rates and the Dollar
- Fed Funds Futures
- Federal Debt and Deficits
- Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy
- Financial System
- Fiscal Policy
- Health Care
- Inflation Expectations
- Interest Rates
- Labor Markets
- Latin America/South America
- Monetary Policy
- Money Markets
- Real Estate
- Saving, Capital, and Investment
- Small Business
- Social Security
- This, That, and the Other
- Trade Deficit
- Wage Growth