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May 08, 2006
A Pause Through August?
So the market seems to think. The latest on the bets from options on federal funds futures:
Of course, tomorrow is another day. So is Wednesday.
The data, plus:
Download Imp_pdf_slides_for_blog_050506.ppt
Download Imp_pdf_slides_for_blog_050506.swf
Download implied_pdf_june_050506.xls
Download implied_pdf_aug_050506.xls
And what its all about, if you are wondering:
May 8, 2006 in Fed Funds Futures | Permalink
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Comments
Posted by:
ErikR |
May 09, 2006 at 07:58 AM
I agree with Erik. ...too close to call.
Posted by:
Trade-Monkey |
May 10, 2006 at 07:09 AM
Looks like the interest rate futures are going to be really busy after the meeting. No one knows how the Bernacke phrasology will read. One thing is for sure, it will affect the market in a big way.
Once the statement is interpreted, The odds of a raise or steady as she goes interest rate will change.
Personally, I do not think they are done. 5.5% is on the way.
Posted by:
jeff |
May 10, 2006 at 07:46 AM
It looks like August has:
3% chance of 4.75% rate
52% chance of 5% rate
21% chance of 5.25% rate
24% chance of 5.5% rate
In other words, the chance of a pause is 55% to 45%.
That looks like close odds to me. I'd interpret it as the market doesn't know. Or perhaps the market is "data driven" :-)