Last Week In Options On Fed Funds Futures: Retail Sales Make Their Mark

Sometimes, the Carlson-Craig-Melick estimates of the probability the market places on alternative outomes for the federal funds rate can be fairly sensitive to incoming data, as well as the public musings of FOMC participants.  Not for the May meeting, not last week.  The picture:

      

   

      

It was a relatively quiet week for the July contracts (which cover the June FOMC), too, at least until late in the week: The March retail sales report released on Thursday apparently convinced the folksw trading options on fed funds futures that an additional 25 basis points in June has become somewhat more likely:

      

      

Of course, today's PPI report and, especially, tomorrow's CPI report, could change everything.

The data, if you wish:

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