The Atlanta Fed's macroblog provides commentary on economic topics including monetary policy, macroeconomic developments, financial issues and Southeast regional trends.
- BLS Handbook of Methods
- Bureau of Economic Analysis
- Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Congressional Budget Office
- Economic Data - FRED® II, St. Louis Fed
- Office of Management and Budget
- Statistics: Releases and Historical Data, Board of Governors
- U.S. Census Bureau Economic Programs
- White House Economic Statistics Briefing Room
March 27, 2006
The Funds Rate Path: Bloggers And The Market Align
Last week Tim Duy revealed...
At a minimum, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s speech reinforces my view that a move beyond 5% is not in the mindset of the FOMC at this point. At a maximum, it leads me to shave down my expectations for a move to 5%.
My bets lie with a pause at 5% but I still see Fed funds between 5.25% and 5.75% later this year.
... and Nathan Kaufman added:
Something in the text [of the Beige Book] may signal that the U.S. economy is not overheating, that inflation is less of a threat, or that interest rate hikes may be less likely in the future.
Good call, lads. That, at least, is the impression one gets from the current vintage of Carlson-Craig-Melick estimates of funds rate probabilities, wherein the expectations for another increase in May backed off a tad...
... and the probability that the funds rate will not move any higher than 5 percent made a run for the money:
I've officially retired the picture showing the market's (completely uninteresting) guesses about where the dust will have settled once the FOMC adjourns tomorrow, but it is in the attached PowerPoint and flash files, if you want a gander just for old-time's sake.
TrackBack URL for this entry:
Listed below are links to blogs that reference The Funds Rate Path: Bloggers And The Market Align:
- Are Shifts in Industry Composition Holding Back Wage Growth?
- Are Oil Prices "Passing Through"?
- Business as Usual?
- What's (Not) Up with Wage Growth?
- Are We Becoming a Part-Time Economy?
- Contrasting the Financing Needs of Different Types of Firms: Evidence From a New Small Business Survey
- Gauging Inflation Expectations with Surveys, Part 3: Do Firms Know What They Don’t Know?
- Gauging Inflation Expectations with Surveys, Part 2: The Question You Ask MattersA Lot
- Gauging Inflation Expectations with Surveys, Part 1: The Perspective of Firms
- Chances of Finding Full-Time Employment Have Improved
- February 2015
- January 2015
- December 2014
- November 2014
- October 2014
- September 2014
- August 2014
- July 2014
- June 2014
- May 2014
- Business Cycles
- Business Inflation Expectations
- Capital and Investment
- Capital Markets
- Data Releases
- Economic conditions
- Economic Growth and Development
- Exchange Rates and the Dollar
- Fed Funds Futures
- Federal Debt and Deficits
- Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy
- Financial System
- Fiscal Policy
- Health Care
- Inflation Expectations
- Interest Rates
- Labor Markets
- Latin America/South America
- Monetary Policy
- Money Markets
- Real Estate
- Saving, Capital, and Investment
- Small Business
- Social Security
- This, That, and the Other
- Trade Deficit