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February 27, 2006

Looking For A Sure Bet?

If so, options on federal funds futures (or at least those who trade them) suggest you lock in 5 percent by May.  Here's the short story:


March_14



May_12


I have been largely of out of commission in the last several weeks, but there was plenty of good honest blogging done elsewhere aimed at the events in the pictures above, on the FOMC minutes (at the Big Picture -- here and here, from Mark Thoma, in the Nattering Naybob Chronicles, at The Prudent Investor, from William Polley), on the CPI report  (by Mike Bryan here at macroblog,  by Barry Ritholtz, from The Capital Spectator, at Economist's View, from The Nattering Naybob, at The Skeptical Speculator), on Fedspeaking from Fed speakers (from Mark Thoma), on the bad-but-probably-not-bad January durable goods report (at Econbrowser, from Mr. Naybob again, from The Skeptical Speculator).


Meanwhile the yield-curve-inversion watch goes on
. (Ten-year yield at close today: 4.59%.)

Here's the data from above, if it pleases you:
Download Imp_pdf_slides_for_blog_022406.ppt
Download implied_pdf_march_022406.xls
Download implied_pdf_may_022406.xls

February 27, 2006 in Fed Funds Futures | Permalink

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Tracked on Mar 3, 2006 8:23:17 AM

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