The Atlanta Fed's macroblog provides commentary and analysis on economic topics including monetary policy, macroeconomic developments, inflation, labor economics, and financial issues.
- BLS Handbook of Methods
- Bureau of Economic Analysis
- Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Congressional Budget Office
- Economic Data - FRED® II, St. Louis Fed
- Office of Management and Budget
- Statistics: Releases and Historical Data, Board of Governors
- U.S. Census Bureau Economic Programs
- White House Economic Statistics Briefing Room
January 30, 2006
GDP Tanked... And Nobody Cared
The remarkable thing about the [take your pick: lackluster, weak, stinky] fourth quarter GDP report was how little impact it had on market sentiment. One widely shared explanation is this one, from Forbes:
U.S. stocks ended higher Friday, wrapping up a solid week of gains for the market after strong earnings reports...
The market also received support from a gross domestic product report showing the U.S. economy slowing more than expected in the fourth quarter. The data raised hopes among some investors that the Federal Reserve may end its string of interest-rate hikes sooner rather than later.
If that is really true, then "later" must have extended at least past the March FOMC meeting. The probabilities for different FOMC decisions, estimated as always from the market for options on fed funds futures, moved in, let's say, interesting ways. Phone in tomorrow...
... and feel pretty confident about another 25 basis points in March:
This week we add new estimates for the May meeting. If you are waiting for a pause, the odds at the moment say see you then:
For the cognoscenti, the May probabilities were estimated using the techniques required for dealing with joint FOMC meetings described in Carlson, Craig, and Melick (2005). If you are in the group that might care about that, you might be in the group that likes to see the data as well:
TrackBack URL for this entry:
Listed below are links to blogs that reference GDP Tanked... And Nobody Cared :
Tracked on Feb 22, 2006 5:49:43 AM
- GDPNow's Forecast: Why Did It Spike Recently?
- How Low Is the Unemployment Rate, Really?
- What Businesses Said about Tax Reform
- Financial Regulation: Fit for New Technologies?
- Is Macroprudential Supervision Ready for the Future?
- Labor Supply Constraints and Health Problems in Rural America
- Building a Better Model: Introducing Changes to GDPNow
- How Ill a Wind? Hurricanes' Impacts on Employment and Earnings
- When Health Insurance and Its Financial Cushion Disappear
- What Is the "Right" Policy Rate?
- February 2018
- January 2018
- November 2017
- October 2017
- September 2017
- August 2017
- July 2017
- May 2017
- April 2017
- March 2017
- Business Cycles
- Business Inflation Expectations
- Capital and Investment
- Capital Markets
- Data Releases
- Economic conditions
- Economic Growth and Development
- Exchange Rates and the Dollar
- Fed Funds Futures
- Federal Debt and Deficits
- Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy
- Financial System
- Fiscal Policy
- Health Care
- Inflation Expectations
- Interest Rates
- Labor Markets
- Latin America/South America
- Monetary Policy
- Money Markets
- Real Estate
- Saving, Capital, and Investment
- Small Business
- Social Security
- This, That, and the Other
- Trade Deficit
- Wage Growth