The Atlanta Fed's macroblog provides commentary and analysis on economic topics including monetary policy, macroeconomic developments, inflation, labor economics, and financial issues.
- BLS Handbook of Methods
- Bureau of Economic Analysis
- Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Congressional Budget Office
- Economic Data - FRED® II, St. Louis Fed
- Office of Management and Budget
- Statistics: Releases and Historical Data, Board of Governors
- U.S. Census Bureau Economic Programs
- White House Economic Statistics Briefing Room
October 03, 2005
Just when we thought we had it figured out, the predictions of a hurricane-related slowdown take a hit from the latest data from the manufacturing sector. From the Institute for Supply Management:
Economic activity in the manufacturing sector grew in September for the 28th consecutive month, while the overall economy grew for the 47th consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.
The report was issued today by Norbert J. Ore, C.P.M., chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The manufacturing sector grew for the 28th consecutive month in September based on the ISM data. The PMI made a strong move to the upside as New Orders and Production rose significantly. This move was supported by slower deliveries and growing order backlogs. While energy prices and the impact from Hurricane Katrina are major concerns, the manufacturing sector has regained significant momentum."
The advances were broad-based...
Of the industries reporting in September, 15 registered growth: Tobacco; Paper; Electronic Components & Equipment; Apparel; Instruments & Photographic Equipment; Wood & Wood Products; Chemicals; Primary Metals; Food; Textiles; Transportation & Equipment; Industrial & Commercial Equipment & Computers; Furniture; Printing & Publishing; and Fabricated Metals.
... and the employment index continued to advance:
ISM's Employment Index registered growth in September for the third consecutive month. The index registered 53.1 percent in September compared to 52.6 percent in August, an increase of 0.5 percentage point. An Employment Index above 48.5 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment.
The price picture wasn't so cheery...
The ISM's Prices Index jumped again in September as the Prices Index rose to 78 percent, up from 62.5 percent in August. September's jump of 15.5 percentage points follows a jump of 14 percentage points from July to August.
... but it is worth pointing out that these reflect the prices producers pay, which may or may not manifest themselves at the consumer level.
The Commerce Department said Hurricane Katrina, which battered the U.S. Gulf Coast at the end of August, had no impact on the month's numbers and should have a minimal effect on construction spending for 2005 as a whole. This is because the hardest-hit states - Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama - accounted for slightly more than 3 percent of total construction spending last year, the government said...
Despite a growing chorus of concern, the U.S. housing sector has shown little sign of cooling off from a multiyear rally that has seen home prices rise by double-digit percentages in some areas. Some economists expect 2005 to be another record year for sales and building, although they maintain the sector should begin to ease in 2006 as long-term interest rates rise and dampen demand.
I'm not sure, but I'd bet we said the same thing about this time last year. In any event, the betting now begins on whether this sentiment, from Bloomberg, will still look like truth when all of the month's data comes rolling in:
The Institute for Supply Management report suggests that economic recovery from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita may be more rapid than analysts expected.
TrackBack URL for this entry:
Listed below are links to blogs that reference September Bounce?:
Tracked on Oct 3, 2005 11:24:39 PM
Tracked on Nov 12, 2005 9:07:52 PM
Tracked on Jun 11, 2006 2:59:55 PM
- Using Judgment in Forecasting: Does It Matter?
- Does Lower Pay Mean Smaller Raises?
- Outside Looking In: Why Has Labor Force Participation Increased?
- Wages Climb Higher, Faster
- Is There a Gender Wage Growth Gap?
- The Price Isn't Right: On GDPNow's Third Quarter Miss
- Is Wage Growth Accelerating?
- Unemployment Risk and Unions
- Cumulative U.S. Trade Deficits Resulting in Net Profits for the U.S. (and Net Losses for China)
- The Slump in Undocumented Immigration to the United States
- December 2016
- November 2016
- October 2016
- September 2016
- August 2016
- July 2016
- June 2016
- May 2016
- April 2016
- March 2016
- Business Cycles
- Business Inflation Expectations
- Capital and Investment
- Capital Markets
- Data Releases
- Economic conditions
- Economic Growth and Development
- Exchange Rates and the Dollar
- Fed Funds Futures
- Federal Debt and Deficits
- Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy
- Financial System
- Fiscal Policy
- Health Care
- Inflation Expectations
- Interest Rates
- Labor Markets
- Latin America/South America
- Monetary Policy
- Money Markets
- Real Estate
- Saving, Capital, and Investment
- Small Business
- Social Security
- This, That, and the Other
- Trade Deficit
- Wage Growth