The Atlanta Fed's macroblog provides commentary on economic topics including monetary policy, macroeconomic developments, financial issues and Southeast regional trends.
- BLS Handbook of Methods
- Bureau of Economic Analysis
- Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Congressional Budget Office
- Economic Data - FRED® II, St. Louis Fed
- Office of Management and Budget
- Statistics: Releases and Historical Data, Board of Governors
- U.S. Census Bureau Economic Programs
- White House Economic Statistics Briefing Room
October 03, 2005
Just when we thought we had it figured out, the predictions of a hurricane-related slowdown take a hit from the latest data from the manufacturing sector. From the Institute for Supply Management:
Economic activity in the manufacturing sector grew in September for the 28th consecutive month, while the overall economy grew for the 47th consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.
The report was issued today by Norbert J. Ore, C.P.M., chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The manufacturing sector grew for the 28th consecutive month in September based on the ISM data. The PMI made a strong move to the upside as New Orders and Production rose significantly. This move was supported by slower deliveries and growing order backlogs. While energy prices and the impact from Hurricane Katrina are major concerns, the manufacturing sector has regained significant momentum."
The advances were broad-based...
Of the industries reporting in September, 15 registered growth: Tobacco; Paper; Electronic Components & Equipment; Apparel; Instruments & Photographic Equipment; Wood & Wood Products; Chemicals; Primary Metals; Food; Textiles; Transportation & Equipment; Industrial & Commercial Equipment & Computers; Furniture; Printing & Publishing; and Fabricated Metals.
... and the employment index continued to advance:
ISM's Employment Index registered growth in September for the third consecutive month. The index registered 53.1 percent in September compared to 52.6 percent in August, an increase of 0.5 percentage point. An Employment Index above 48.5 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment.
The price picture wasn't so cheery...
The ISM's Prices Index jumped again in September as the Prices Index rose to 78 percent, up from 62.5 percent in August. September's jump of 15.5 percentage points follows a jump of 14 percentage points from July to August.
... but it is worth pointing out that these reflect the prices producers pay, which may or may not manifest themselves at the consumer level.
The Commerce Department said Hurricane Katrina, which battered the U.S. Gulf Coast at the end of August, had no impact on the month's numbers and should have a minimal effect on construction spending for 2005 as a whole. This is because the hardest-hit states - Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama - accounted for slightly more than 3 percent of total construction spending last year, the government said...
Despite a growing chorus of concern, the U.S. housing sector has shown little sign of cooling off from a multiyear rally that has seen home prices rise by double-digit percentages in some areas. Some economists expect 2005 to be another record year for sales and building, although they maintain the sector should begin to ease in 2006 as long-term interest rates rise and dampen demand.
I'm not sure, but I'd bet we said the same thing about this time last year. In any event, the betting now begins on whether this sentiment, from Bloomberg, will still look like truth when all of the month's data comes rolling in:
The Institute for Supply Management report suggests that economic recovery from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita may be more rapid than analysts expected.
TrackBack URL for this entry:
Listed below are links to blogs that reference September Bounce?:
Tracked on Oct 3, 2005 11:24:39 PM
Tracked on Nov 12, 2005 9:07:52 PM
Tracked on Jun 11, 2006 2:59:55 PM
- Introducing the Refined Labor Market Spider Chart
- Shrinking Labor Market Opportunities for the Disabled?
- Are Long-Term Inflation Expectations Declining? Not So Fast, Says Atlanta Fed
- What Occupational Projections Say about Entry-Level Skill Demand
- A Closer Look at Changes in the Labor Market
- Should We Be Concerned about Declines in Labor Force Growth?
- Labor Report Silver Lining? ZPOP Ratio Continued to Rise in September
- The ZPOP Ratio: A Simple Take on a Complicated Labor Market
- What Do U.S. Businesses Know that New Zealand Businesses Don't? A Lot (Apparently).
- 5-Year Deflation Probability Moves Off Zero
- February 2016
- January 2016
- November 2015
- October 2015
- September 2015
- August 2015
- July 2015
- June 2015
- May 2015
- April 2015
- Business Cycles
- Business Inflation Expectations
- Capital and Investment
- Capital Markets
- Data Releases
- Economic conditions
- Economic Growth and Development
- Exchange Rates and the Dollar
- Fed Funds Futures
- Federal Debt and Deficits
- Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy
- Financial System
- Fiscal Policy
- Health Care
- Inflation Expectations
- Interest Rates
- Labor Markets
- Latin America/South America
- Monetary Policy
- Money Markets
- Real Estate
- Saving, Capital, and Investment
- Small Business
- Social Security
- This, That, and the Other
- Trade Deficit
- Wage Growth