The Atlanta Fed's macroblog provides commentary and analysis on economic topics including monetary policy, macroeconomic developments, inflation, labor economics, and financial issues.
- BLS Handbook of Methods
- Bureau of Economic Analysis
- Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Congressional Budget Office
- Economic Data - FRED® II, St. Louis Fed
- Office of Management and Budget
- Statistics: Releases and Historical Data, Board of Governors
- U.S. Census Bureau Economic Programs
- White House Economic Statistics Briefing Room
October 14, 2005
Household Inflation Expectations: No Improvement
For U.S. consumers the gloom persists, or says today's release of the University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment. From Reuters:
U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly fell for a third month to the lowest in more than 13 years as concerns persisted about high energy prices and hurricane-related economic disruption.
The University of Michigan's preliminary index of consumer sentiment decreased to 75.4 from 76.9 in September. Televised scenes of widespread destruction from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita and the jump in energy prices that followed reduced consumer confidence last month to the lowest since a reading of 73.3 in October 1992...
The preliminary October current conditions index, which reflects Americans' perceptions of their financial situations and whether it's a good time to buy big-ticket items, fell to 95.7 from 98.1 in September. The prior reading was the lowest since December 2003.
The expectations index, based on optimism about the next one to five years, decreased to 62.4 from 63.3. That's the lowest since February 1992, when it was 61.8.
Even more to the point if you are a central banker, inflation expectations have not retreated from their large post-Katrina spike. Here's the picture of the average survey response:
Those average responses contain some rather large outliers, so we generally look to the median response as a better guide to what the representative survey respondent is thinking. That picture, however, provides no more comfort:
The long-term expectations are, of course, quite a lot more muted, and those are the ones we really care about. Still...
TrackBack URL for this entry:
Listed below are links to blogs that reference Household Inflation Expectations: No Improvement :
- Hitting a Cyclical High: The Wage Growth Premium from Changing Jobs
- Thoughts on a Long-Run Monetary Policy Framework, Part 4: Flexible Price-Level Targeting in the Big Picture
- Thoughts on a Long-Run Monetary Policy Framework, Part 3: An Example of Flexible Price-Level Targeting
- Thoughts on a Long-Run Monetary Policy Framework, Part 2: The Principle of Bounded Nominal Uncertainty
- Thoughts on a Long-Run Monetary Policy Framework: Framing the Question
- What Are Businesses Saying about Tax Reform Now?
- A First Look at Employment
- Weighting the Wage Growth Tracker
- GDPNow's Forecast: Why Did It Spike Recently?
- How Low Is the Unemployment Rate, Really?
- April 2018
- March 2018
- February 2018
- January 2018
- November 2017
- October 2017
- September 2017
- August 2017
- July 2017
- May 2017
- Business Cycles
- Business Inflation Expectations
- Capital and Investment
- Capital Markets
- Data Releases
- Economic conditions
- Economic Growth and Development
- Exchange Rates and the Dollar
- Fed Funds Futures
- Federal Debt and Deficits
- Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy
- Financial System
- Fiscal Policy
- Health Care
- Inflation Expectations
- Interest Rates
- Labor Markets
- Latin America/South America
- Monetary Policy
- Money Markets
- Real Estate
- Saving, Capital, and Investment
- Small Business
- Social Security
- This, That, and the Other
- Trade Deficit
- Wage Growth