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October 17, 2005

A Quiet Week For The Funds Rate Forecasts

It was an active week for economic news.  On Thursday we learned that the trade deficit widened, import prices grew in September by the "largest monthly advance [in import prices] since October 1990",and the 2005 fiscal-year deficit shrunk from 2004's record-setting level (but was still pretty darn big).  Friday brought the bad-news/good-news CPI report for September, a positive report on September retail sales, and a lousy industrial production report.

Put it all together and what did you get?  Not much, according to our estimated probabilities for assorted federal funds rate targets.  The story, as usual, in pictures:

November_11


December_3


And now January, with the market telling is that the odds are the FOMC will just keep on truckin':


January

For the data-hungry:

Download implied_pdf_november_101405.xls

Download implied_pdf_december_101405.xls

Download implied_pdf_january_101405.xls

And for those of you who have a presentation to give:

Download Imp_pdf_slides_for_blog_101405.ppt

October 17, 2005 in Data Releases, Fed Funds Futures | Permalink

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