The Atlanta Fed's macroblog provides commentary and analysis on economic topics including monetary policy, macroeconomic developments, inflation, labor economics, and financial issues.
- BLS Handbook of Methods
- Bureau of Economic Analysis
- Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Congressional Budget Office
- Economic Data - FRED® II, St. Louis Fed
- Office of Management and Budget
- Statistics: Releases and Historical Data, Board of Governors
- U.S. Census Bureau Economic Programs
- White House Economic Statistics Briefing Room
September 07, 2005
The U.S. Economy: The Fundamentals Still Sound?
The latest edition of the Federal Reserve Banks' report on regional economic conditions (the Beige Book) suggests it is so:
Economic activity increased across the nation from mid-July through August, except in the Boston District, where activity was mixed. The growth was widespread as retail sales, services, finance, construction, manufacturing, mining, energy, and tourism all expanded. A few Districts reported softening in residential real estate markets, albeit from still brisk levels of activity, while commercial real estate markets strengthened in most Districts. Lending activity increased, and credit quality was stable. Conditions in the agricultural sector improved slightly, with late summer rains somewhat alleviating the effects of drought. Meanwhile, labor markets showed signs of tightening with modest wage increases. Except for energy, overall consumer price increases were modest.
This is all pre-Katrina, of course, but the first "official" take from the Congressional Budget Office suggests the disaster's effects will be, in Andrew Samwick's words, "significant, but not overwhelming":
Katrina could dampen real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the second half of the year by ½ to 1 percentage point and reduce employment through the end of this year by about 400,000. Most economic forecasters had expected 3 percent to 4 percent growth during the second half, and employment growth of 150,000 to 200,000 per month. Economic growth and employment are likely to rebound during the first half of 2006 as rebuilding accelerates.
The effects on the populations and localities that took the direct hit are, of course, enormous, but according to the CBO the spillover effects to the macroeconomy are likely to be limited:
The supply of petroleum products, as indicated above, does not appear to be a major macroeconomic problem, but higher gasoline prices will temporarily reduce both gasoline consumption and consumption of other goods and services.
As to Brad Setser's fears, the CBO projects:
The damage to the Port of Southern Louisiana is significant, but most shipping will be able to resume in a few weeks or be diverted from the New Orleans facilities to other facilities on the Mississippi (such as Baton Rouge) or to Houston. Vessels drafting more than 39 feet cannot currently use the river. Only one grain elevator appeared to be severely damaged, and the others are coming back into operation as power is restored.
As Andrew points out, these are still only educated guesses at best. But, as the Beige Book report suggests, the reference point seemed to be an economy on relatively sound footing. Add to that the fact that the global economy seems to be strengthening more generally, as noted by The Skeptical Speculator, and there is at least some reason for optimism.
I have been feeling a bit gloomy about things in the past week. Maybe some perspective is in order.
TrackBack URL for this entry:
Listed below are links to blogs that reference The U.S. Economy: The Fundamentals Still Sound? :
- Hitting a Cyclical High: The Wage Growth Premium from Changing Jobs
- Thoughts on a Long-Run Monetary Policy Framework, Part 4: Flexible Price-Level Targeting in the Big Picture
- Thoughts on a Long-Run Monetary Policy Framework, Part 3: An Example of Flexible Price-Level Targeting
- Thoughts on a Long-Run Monetary Policy Framework, Part 2: The Principle of Bounded Nominal Uncertainty
- Thoughts on a Long-Run Monetary Policy Framework: Framing the Question
- What Are Businesses Saying about Tax Reform Now?
- A First Look at Employment
- Weighting the Wage Growth Tracker
- GDPNow's Forecast: Why Did It Spike Recently?
- How Low Is the Unemployment Rate, Really?
- April 2018
- March 2018
- February 2018
- January 2018
- November 2017
- October 2017
- September 2017
- August 2017
- July 2017
- May 2017
- Business Cycles
- Business Inflation Expectations
- Capital and Investment
- Capital Markets
- Data Releases
- Economic conditions
- Economic Growth and Development
- Exchange Rates and the Dollar
- Fed Funds Futures
- Federal Debt and Deficits
- Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy
- Financial System
- Fiscal Policy
- Health Care
- Inflation Expectations
- Interest Rates
- Labor Markets
- Latin America/South America
- Monetary Policy
- Money Markets
- Real Estate
- Saving, Capital, and Investment
- Small Business
- Social Security
- This, That, and the Other
- Trade Deficit
- Wage Growth