The Atlanta Fed's macroblog provides commentary and analysis on economic topics including monetary policy, macroeconomic developments, inflation, labor economics, and financial issues.
- BLS Handbook of Methods
- Bureau of Economic Analysis
- Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Congressional Budget Office
- Economic Data - FRED® II, St. Louis Fed
- Office of Management and Budget
- Statistics: Releases and Historical Data, Board of Governors
- U.S. Census Bureau Economic Programs
- White House Economic Statistics Briefing Room
September 06, 2005
Post-Katrina Funds Rate Expectations: Oh My
When I last reported on the Carlson-Craig-Melick estimates of the federal funds rate path, expectations for the November meeting had softened substantially, but another 25 basis points at next week's FOMC meeting still looked like a lock.
What a difference a day made:
Here's the version of the picture with the relevant "news" identified:
Friday's relatively good employment report for August made some difference, and maybe better news from New Orleans will reinforce that move. But there is no escaping the conclusion that "no change" is now in play.
Unfortunately, the team that provides these estimates has advised me to hold off on reporting results for the November contract at this time. Because the market is now pricing in a positive probability of a pause, the estimation procedures are a bit more complicated, and the elves are not yet happy with what they see. They are working away on that, as well as the January contract, and I will report them as soon as I get the green light.
In the meantime, here's the data for the October contract pictured above:
Barry Ritholtz objects to my characterization of the August employment report, in the comment section below. I responded, but if you want to decide for yourself Vox Baby provides the raw material.
TrackBack URL for this entry:
Listed below are links to blogs that reference Post-Katrina Funds Rate Expectations: Oh My:
» Will the Fed pause this month? from New Economist
The aftermath of Hurricane Katrina has seen some US econobloggers fear the worst. James Hamilton warns that, coupled with higher energy prices, it could put the US into recession. (For other blogger views see William Polley's useful round-up on Katrin... [Read More]
Tracked on Sep 6, 2005 4:03:58 PM
Tracked on Sep 6, 2005 7:09:59 PM
- Payroll Employment Growth: Strong Enough?
- Forecasting Loan Losses for Stress Tests
- Men at Work: Are We Seeing a Turnaround in Male Labor Force Participation?
- What’s Moving the Market’s Views on the Path of Short-Term Rates?
- Lockhart Casts a Line into the Murky Waters of Uncertainty
- How Will Employers Respond to New Overtime Regulations?
- How Good Is The Employment Trend? Decide for Yourself
- Is the Labor Market Tossing a Fair Coin?
- When It Rains, It Pours
- Pay As You Go: Yes or No?
- August 2016
- July 2016
- June 2016
- May 2016
- April 2016
- March 2016
- February 2016
- January 2016
- November 2015
- October 2015
- Business Cycles
- Business Inflation Expectations
- Capital and Investment
- Capital Markets
- Data Releases
- Economic conditions
- Economic Growth and Development
- Exchange Rates and the Dollar
- Fed Funds Futures
- Federal Debt and Deficits
- Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy
- Financial System
- Fiscal Policy
- Health Care
- Inflation Expectations
- Interest Rates
- Labor Markets
- Latin America/South America
- Monetary Policy
- Money Markets
- Real Estate
- Saving, Capital, and Investment
- Small Business
- Social Security
- This, That, and the Other
- Trade Deficit
- Wage Growth