The Atlanta Fed's macroblog provides commentary and analysis on economic topics including monetary policy, macroeconomic developments, inflation, labor economics, and financial issues.
- BLS Handbook of Methods
- Bureau of Economic Analysis
- Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Congressional Budget Office
- Economic Data - FRED® II, St. Louis Fed
- Office of Management and Budget
- Statistics: Releases and Historical Data, Board of Governors
- U.S. Census Bureau Economic Programs
- White House Economic Statistics Briefing Room
August 31, 2005
Funds Rate Probabilities: Special Katrina Edition
Several people commented yesterday on the release of the minutes from the August 9 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. The Prudent Investor highlighted the usual clause identifying the importance of intervening economic developments on the ultimate outcome on the funds rate. So did William Polley. At Economist's View, Tim Duy takes a contrarian position and projects that "Minutes+Katrina = More Tightening."
Today, that looks contrarian indeed, as the horrific intervening economic development represented by Katrina appears to have softened the sentiment for future funds rate hikes, not so much for September but for November for sure. Thanks to the ever alert Erkin Sahinoz, we have these estimates from the options on federal funds futures:
That was as of the market close yesterday. We'll see how things develop over the week.
UPDATE: Professor Polley takes issue with Professor Duy.
TrackBack URL for this entry:
Listed below are links to blogs that reference Funds Rate Probabilities: Special Katrina Edition :
Katrina and the probability of recession
William J. Polley
Kash returns from his hiatus and tries to discern the "animal spirits." He's worried. Even temporary problems can get magnified if they contribute to a broader change in psychology. And I think that the current situation contains the seeds for... [Read More]
Tracked on Aug 31, 2005 6:44:23 PM
- GDPNow's Forecast: Why Did It Spike Recently?
- How Low Is the Unemployment Rate, Really?
- What Businesses Said about Tax Reform
- Financial Regulation: Fit for New Technologies?
- Is Macroprudential Supervision Ready for the Future?
- Labor Supply Constraints and Health Problems in Rural America
- Building a Better Model: Introducing Changes to GDPNow
- How Ill a Wind? Hurricanes' Impacts on Employment and Earnings
- When Health Insurance and Its Financial Cushion Disappear
- What Is the "Right" Policy Rate?
- February 2018
- January 2018
- November 2017
- October 2017
- September 2017
- August 2017
- July 2017
- May 2017
- April 2017
- March 2017
- Business Cycles
- Business Inflation Expectations
- Capital and Investment
- Capital Markets
- Data Releases
- Economic conditions
- Economic Growth and Development
- Exchange Rates and the Dollar
- Fed Funds Futures
- Federal Debt and Deficits
- Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy
- Financial System
- Fiscal Policy
- Health Care
- Inflation Expectations
- Interest Rates
- Labor Markets
- Latin America/South America
- Monetary Policy
- Money Markets
- Real Estate
- Saving, Capital, and Investment
- Small Business
- Social Security
- This, That, and the Other
- Trade Deficit
- Wage Growth