The Atlanta Fed's macroblog provides commentary and analysis on economic topics including monetary policy, macroeconomic developments, inflation, labor economics, and financial issues.
- BLS Handbook of Methods
- Bureau of Economic Analysis
- Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Congressional Budget Office
- Economic Data - FRED® II, St. Louis Fed
- Office of Management and Budget
- Statistics: Releases and Historical Data, Board of Governors
- U.S. Census Bureau Economic Programs
- White House Economic Statistics Briefing Room
June 03, 2005
Jumping The Gun On The Employment Report?
General Glut as well. I think. The good General does make this pretty important observation:
Putting the strong April together with the weak May, we get an average for 2005:II thus far at 176,000 jobs per month, just slightly above the level needed to simply keep pace with population growth. For the calendar year the US economy is averaging a nearly identical 180,000 jobs per month.
OK, he does go on to note that we appear stuck at a pace below that of early 2004, and the it's-all-construction warning makes it due appearance. But that doesn't mitigate the fact that it is always dangerous to get too exercised about one month's report, and the trend appears to be holding pretty steady.
The bond market apparently saw fit to second-guess it's first reaction. From CNNMoney:
After a morning rally fizzled out, Treasury prices dipped Friday afternoon on a service sector report and jitters by speculators...
Treasuries initially spiked up after the government reported Friday that May payrolls grew by only 78,000, well below the 175,000 consensus forecast of economists surveyed by Briefing.com.
The jobs number was the smallest monthly increase since August 2003, when only 2,000 jobs were added, according to revised figures from the Labor Department...
But by midday, bonds had given back all of those gains and were down from the previous session as traders sold their positions for profit ahead of the weekend.
A report by the Institute for Supply Management showed growth in the service sector for May, even though it fell short of Wall Street expectations. The index -- which considers everything from coffee shops to airlines, fell to 58.5 from 61.7 -- but remained above 50, which indicates a sign of growth.
Also adding to the slide were comments by Federal Reserve Governor Edward Gramlich, who said he was uncertain what stage of rate-hike campaign the central bank is in now.
His remarks, which hinted that the Fed would not alter from its measured pace of interest rate increases, came two days after Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher said the tightening campaign was in the "eighth inning."
Here's the picture:
TrackBack URL for this entry:
Listed below are links to blogs that reference Jumping The Gun On The Employment Report?:
» Disappointing job statistics? from Econbrowser
The May employment figures released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics yesterday sent mixed signals, revealing that U.S. job creation slowed in May even as the unemployment rate edged slightly lower. [Read More]
Tracked on Jun 5, 2005 12:38:42 AM
- Following the Overseas Money
- The Impact of Extraordinary Policy on Interest and Foreign Exchange Rates
- Using Judgment in Forecasting: Does It Matter?
- Does Lower Pay Mean Smaller Raises?
- Outside Looking In: Why Has Labor Force Participation Increased?
- Wages Climb Higher, Faster
- Is There a Gender Wage Growth Gap?
- The Price Isn't Right: On GDPNow's Third Quarter Miss
- Is Wage Growth Accelerating?
- Unemployment Risk and Unions
- January 2017
- December 2016
- November 2016
- October 2016
- September 2016
- August 2016
- July 2016
- June 2016
- May 2016
- April 2016
- Business Cycles
- Business Inflation Expectations
- Capital and Investment
- Capital Markets
- Data Releases
- Economic conditions
- Economic Growth and Development
- Exchange Rates and the Dollar
- Fed Funds Futures
- Federal Debt and Deficits
- Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy
- Financial System
- Fiscal Policy
- Health Care
- Inflation Expectations
- Interest Rates
- Labor Markets
- Latin America/South America
- Monetary Policy
- Money Markets
- Real Estate
- Saving, Capital, and Investment
- Small Business
- Social Security
- This, That, and the Other
- Trade Deficit
- Wage Growth