About
The Atlanta Fed's macroblog provides commentary on economic topics including monetary policy, macroeconomic developments, financial issues and Southeast regional trends.
Authors for macroblog are Dave Altig and other Atlanta Fed economists.
Useful Links
Government Resources
- BLS Handbook of Methods
- Bureau of Economic Analysis
- Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Congressional Budget Office
- Economic Data - FRED® II, St. Louis Fed
- Office of Management and Budget
- Statistics: Releases and Historical Data, Board of Governors
- U.S. Census Bureau Economic Programs
- White House Economic Statistics Briefing Room
« Shiller On The Housing Bubble | Main | Conundrum Solved? »
June 06, 2005
Funds Futures: No Decision
Not much change from last week. Together, between 75% and 80% of the probabilities estimated from the October options contract on federal funds futures are on levels of 3.5% or 3.75% (cumulatively) by that time. Interestingly, the estimates are telling us the probability of continued "measured pace" increases through the September FOMC meeting made a comeback after the weak employment report on Friday. Sort of strange, but consistent with the behavior of the bond market over the course of the day.
Here's the pictures:
Here's the data:
Download july_pdfs_060605.xls
Download october_pdfs_060605.xls
And if you are new to this, and are interested in more information on these calculations, you can find it here.
June 6, 2005 in Fed Funds Futures, Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy | Permalink
TrackBack
TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.typepad.com/services/trackback/6a00d8341c834f53ef00d8345831fc69e2
Listed below are links to blogs that reference Funds Futures: No Decision:
» Predicting the Fed's next move from Econbrowser
Fed-watching can be something of an arcane sport.... Although playing that game can be fun, it's actually quite easy for anybody to have a very well-informed belief about what we can expect next from the Federal Reserve. [Read More]
Tracked on Jun 8, 2005 2:33:05 PM
» Predicting the Fed's next move from Econbrowser
Fed-watching can be something of an arcane sport.... Although playing that game can be fun, it's actually quite easy for anybody to have a very well-informed belief about what we can expect next from the Federal Reserve. [Read More]
Tracked on Jun 10, 2005 2:10:53 PM
Comments
Posted by:
edward |
June 06, 2005 at 12:50 PM
I guess Fisher's "8th inning" remark had some impact. It appears that after his remarks the odds of 4%, by the Sep 20th meeting, dropped substantially. And the odds of stopping at 3.25% rose slightly.
To me the big surprise was that the odds of 3.5% dropped while 3.75% actually increased! If Fisher's comments were taken to heart, I would think 3.5% would be the most likely rate after the next 3 meetings (25bps on June 30 and 25bps for either Aug or Sep). "Measured pace" is still the favorite!
Posted by:
CalculatedRisk |
June 06, 2005 at 07:32 PM
Google Search
Recent Posts
- Are Shifts in Industry Composition Holding Back Wage Growth?
- Are Oil Prices "Passing Through"?
- Business as Usual?
- What's (Not) Up with Wage Growth?
- Are We Becoming a Part-Time Economy?
- Contrasting the Financing Needs of Different Types of Firms: Evidence From a New Small Business Survey
- Gauging Inflation Expectations with Surveys, Part 3: Do Firms Know What They Don’t Know?
- Gauging Inflation Expectations with Surveys, Part 2: The Question You Ask MattersA Lot
- Gauging Inflation Expectations with Surveys, Part 1: The Perspective of Firms
- Chances of Finding Full-Time Employment Have Improved
February 2015
| Sun | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
| 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 |
| 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 |
Archives
- February 2015
- January 2015
- December 2014
- November 2014
- October 2014
- September 2014
- August 2014
- July 2014
- June 2014
- May 2014
Categories
- Africa
- Americas
- Asia
- Australia
- Banking
- Business Cycles
- Business Inflation Expectations
- Capital and Investment
- Capital Markets
- Data Releases
- Deficits
- Deflation
- Economic conditions
- Economic Growth and Development
- Economics
- Education
- Employment
- Energy
- Europe
- Exchange Rates and the Dollar
- Fed Funds Futures
- Federal Debt and Deficits
- Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy
- Financial System
- Fiscal Policy
- Forecasts
- GDP
- Health Care
- Housing
- Immigration
- Inequality
- Inflation
- Inflation Expectations
- Interest Rates
- Katrina
- Labor Markets
- Latin America/South America
- Monetary Policy
- Money Markets
- Pricing
- Productivity
- Real Estate
- Regulation
- Sarbanes-Oxley
- Saving, Capital, and Investment
- Small Business
- Social Security
- Sports
- Taxes
- Technology
- This, That, and the Other
- Trade
- Trade Deficit
- Unemployment
- Web/Tech
Hi,
Just to say thanks quickly for all that linking, will do my best to reciprocate. Meantime there's now a link to your blog in the specialist blogs section on Afoe :).