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March 23, 2005

Yesterday's FOMC Meeting: The Immediate Aftermath

Greg Ip makes this observation in today's Wall Street Journal:

The Federal Reserve nudged interest rates higher, as expected, but signaled for the first time in more than four years that it is concerned with inflation.

The shift in tone raises the prospect that the Fed could accelerate the pace of rate increases, though not just yet.

William Polley notes this observation from Reuters:

The changes in the statement raised the prospect of the Fed  accelerating its current steady rate rises.

"It really raises the possibility of a 50 basis point hike down the road or higher rates than was previously thought," said Marshall Gittler, senior market strategist at Deutsche Securities in Tokyo.

That looks to be the consensus.  Probabilities derived from fed-funds futures options for May did not budge...

May_2

... but the July probability on 50 basis points jumped.

July_2

We'll keep track of how this develops as the Committee participants start hitting the road to chat up their take on things.

March 23, 2005 in Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy | Permalink

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A few more comments over at my blog.

Posted by: William Polley | March 23, 2005 at 04:34 PM

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